TEMPE, Ariz. — July 1, 2022 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in June, with the overall economy achieving a 25th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 53 percent, down 3.1 percentage points from the reading of 56.1 percent in May. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 25th month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI® reading since June 2020, when it registered 52.4 percent. The New Orders Index reading of 49.2 percent is 5.9 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 54.9 percent is a 0.7-percentage point increase compared to May’s figure of 54.2 percent. The Prices Index registered 78.5 percent, down 3.7 percentage points compared to the May figure of 82.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 53.2 percent, 5.5 percentage points below the May reading of 58.7 percent. The Employment Index contracted for a second straight month at 47.3 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 49.6 percent recorded in May. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 57.3 percent is 8.4 percentage points lower than the May figure of 65.7 percent. The Inventories Index registered 56 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than the May reading of 55.9 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 50.7 percent is down 2.2 percentage points compared to May’s figure of 52.9 percent. The Imports Index climbed into expansion territory, up 2 percentage points to 50.7 percent from 48.7 percent in May.”
Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to be powered — though less so in June — by demand while held back by supply chain constraints. Despite the Employment Index contracting in May and June, companies improved their progress on addressing moderate-term labor shortages at all tiers of the supply chain, according to Business Survey Committee respondents’ comments. Panelists reported lower rates of quits compared to May. Prices expansion slightly eased for a third straight month in June, but instability in global energy markets continues. Sentiment remained optimistic regarding demand, with three positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists continue to note supply chain and pricing issues as their biggest concerns. Demand dropped, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at a very low level, though it increased and (3) Backlog of Orders Index decreasing but still in growth territory. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was mixed during the period, with a combined minus-1.6-percentage point change to the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index contracted for the second month in a row after expanding for eight straight months (September through April), but panelists again indicated month-over-month improvement in ability to hire in June. Challenges with turnover (quits and retirements) and resulting backfilling continue to plague efforts to adequately staff organizations, but to a lesser degree compared to the previous month. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — continued to constrain production expansion but to a lesser extent compared to May. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated deliveries slowed at a slower rate in June, which was supported by a slight increase in the Inventories Index. The Imports Index expanded in June after one month of contraction preceded by six consecutive months of expansion. The Prices Index increased for the 25th consecutive month, at a slower rate compared to May.
“All of the six biggest manufacturing industries — Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in June.
“Manufacturing performed well for the 25th straight month. There are signs of new order rate softening — cited in 17 percent of general comments, compared to 10 percent in May — but the root cause is difficult to determine: (1) demand reduction, (2) adjustment for excessive lead times, causing order rate adjustments or (3) a combination of both. Employment activity remain strongly positive in spite of the uncertainty with new order rates,” says Fiore.
Fifteen manufacturing industries reported growth in June, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting contraction in June compared to May are: Paper Products; Wood Products; and Furniture & Related Products.
“Backlog is high, but incoming orders slowing this month.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
“New orders have stabilized and not increased.” [Chemical Products]
“Continued strong demand for transportation equipment.” [Transportation Equipment]
“Business is slower than expected in volume, but revenue is on pace with our budget. Ocean freight costs are finally beginning to fall a bit. We are already receiving large orders for the fall, which is encouraging.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
“Continued tightening of market, rising gas/diesel prices, and limited labor/drivers equates to increased cost. Few markets showing a levelling off.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]
“Our suppliers are experiencing a softening of orders. We are still running at the same high level we did throughout 2021 and in early 2022.” [Machinery]
“Business is still steady. Some customers are pushing orders out because they have too much inventory. We are able to backfill the pushed orders from customers that want theirs earlier, so we aren’t losing capacity.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
“We are hearing from customers that their inventories are high, and sales are coming down. We expect orders to decline on the coming months until inventories are leveled properly against demand.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
“Orders and production continue to be strong, but material availability is holding us back. Cannot run enough hours to eat into the backlog.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
“Supply seems to be settling to some degree, but what it is settling into remains in question. Diminishing cost and (continued) limited supply in aluminum make for an interesting combination. There are actually more questions than answers this month.” [Primary Metals]
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price Adhesives and Paint (7); Aluminum* (25); Caustic Soda (4); Corrugate (5); Corrugated Packaging (20); Crude Oil (2); Diesel Fuel (18); Electrical Components (19); Electricity; Electronic Components (19); Energy (4); Freight (20); High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Resin; Labor — Temporary (14); Lumber* (7); Natural Gas (12); Packaging Supplies (19); Paper (4); Petroleum Based Products (2); Pigments and Dyes; Resin Based Products (3); Plastic Resins* (6); Rubber Based Products (11); Steel* (23); Steel — Fabricated & Machined Components (2); Steel — Stainless (20); Steel Castings; Steel Products (22); and Synthetic Rubber.
Commodities Down in Price Aluminum* (2); Lumber*; Ocean Freight; Plastic Resins*; Steel* (2); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Hot Rolled (2); and Steel — Scrap (2).
Commodities in Short Supply Electric Motors; Electrical Components (21); Electronic Components (19); Hydraulic Components (2); Labor — Temporary (14); Packaging Products (2); Paper (3); Plastic Resins (2); Rubber Based Products; Semiconductors (19); Steel — Fabricated & Machined Components (2); Steel — Stainless; and Steel Products (3).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
Manufacturing grew in June, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 53 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the May reading of 56.1 percent. “The Manufacturing PMI® continued to indicate sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in June. Three of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® were in growth territory. All of the six biggest manufacturing industries registered moderate-to-strong growth in June, in this order: Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The Production Index increased at a slightly faster rate. The Supplier Deliveries Index slowed at a slower rate while the Inventories Index increased slightly, indicating somewhat easing supply chain congestion. Eight of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of ‘too low’ for the Customers’ Inventories Index is considered a positive for future production,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in June for the 25th consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for June (53 percent) corresponds to a 1.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.
ISM®’s New Orders Index dropped to 49.2 percent in June, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points compared to the 55.1 percent reported in May. This indicates that new order volumes contracted after growing for 24 consecutive months. “Two of the six largest manufacturing sectors — Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — increased new orders at moderate-to-strong levels. Price elevation and extended lead times resulted in a continuing slowing in new order rates across the supply chain. Backlog sagged in the month due to the weakness in new orders,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, eight reported growth in new orders in June, in the following order: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Seven industries reported a decline in new orders in June, in the following order: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
The Production Index registered 54.9 percent in June, 0.7 percentage point higher than the May reading of 54.2 percent, indicating growth for the 25th consecutive month. “Of the top six industries, four —Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products — expanded in June. Hiring and materials availability continue to show signs of recovery, but factories are still struggling to hit optimum output rates — primarily due to high levels of employee turnover,” says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
Ten industries reported growth in production during the month of June, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in June are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; and Furniture & Related Products.
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 47.3 percent in June, 2.3 percentage points below the May reading of 49.6 percent. “The index contracted for a second straight month after an eight-month period of expansion. This is the lowest reading since August 2020, when the index registered 47.1 percent. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded. Survey panelists’ companies are still struggling to meet labor management plans, though there are more signs of improvement: A larger share of comments (14 percent in June, up from 7 percent in May) noted greater hiring ease. An overwhelming majority of panelists again indicate their companies are hiring. Among those respondents, 42 percent expressed difficulty in filling positions, up from 30 percent in May. Turnover rates remain elevated (29 percent of comments cited backfills and retirements, a decrease from 36 percent in May). Employment levels, driven primarily by turnover, remain the top issue affecting further output growth,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Nine of 18 manufacturing industries reported employment growth in June, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in June — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Supplier Deliveries† The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in June, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.3 percent, 8.4 percentage points lower than the 65.7 percent reported in May. Five of the top six manufacturing industries (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported slower deliveries. “Deliveries slowed at a slower rate compared to the previous month. The index continues to reflect suppliers’ difficulties in meeting demand from panelists’ companies, but there are clear signs of easing. In June, suppliers remained in a labor-constrained environment, based on panelists’ comments and the Employment Index remaining in contraction territory. Transportation networks reflected improvement compared to May. Among supplier delivery comments, 6 percent noted stable month-over-month improvement,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
Fourteen of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in June, in the following order: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Three industries reported faster supplier deliveries in June as compared to May: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
The Inventories Index registered 56 percent in June, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 55.9 percent reported for May. “Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slightly faster rate compared to May. Of the six big manufacturing industries, four (Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) grew their inventories of manufacturing raw materials in June. Companies report a continued willingness to take early delivery of raw materials as well as building extra work in process to support quick conversion,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the eight reporting higher inventories in June — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The three industries reporting contracting inventories in June are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Primary Metals. Seven industries reported no change in inventories in June as compared to May.
Customers’ Inventories† ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 35.2 percent in June, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 32.7 percent reported for May, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered much too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 69th consecutive month, a positive for future production growth. For 23 straight months, the Customers’ Inventories Index has been at historically low levels,” says Fiore.
Two industries (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Wood Products) reported customers’ inventories as too high in June. The 14 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during June — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.
The ISM® Prices Index registered 78.5 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower compared to the May reading of 82.2 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 25th consecutive month, at a slower rate in June. The Prices Index has exceeded 70 percent in 18 out of the last 19 months and been above 60 percent for 22 straight months. “Continued oil and fuel price increases, packaging supplies (including corrugate), food ingredients, and petroleum-based products and petrochemicals were the primary causes of prices growth. Notably, 8.3 percent of respondents reported lower prices in June, supporting a continued slow but steady move towards price softening,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In June, 17 of 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products. No industry reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in June.
Backlog of Orders† ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 53.2 percent in June, a 5.5-percentage point decrease compared to the 58.7 percent reported in May, indicating order backlogs expanded for the 24th straight month. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three — Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded their order backlogs. “Backlogs expanded in June at a slower rate, as output remains stable at relatively low levels and new orders have slowed due to excessive lead times and historically high prices,” says Fiore.
Nine industries reported growth in order backlogs in June, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting lower backlogs in June are: Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 50.7 percent in June, 2.2 percentage points below the May reading of 52.9 percent. “The New Export Orders Index grew for the 24th consecutive month, at a slower rate in June. For the fourth straight month, COVID-19 in China has suppressed customer demand from overseas, and the war in Ukraine has limited European demand. Of the six big industry sectors, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded,” says Fiore.
The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in June are: Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in June are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in exports in June as compared to May.
Imports† ISM®’s Imports Index registered 50.7 percent in June after contracting in May, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to May’s figure of 48.7 percent. “Imports grew marginally in June. Import demand remains strong entering the back-to-school and holiday import seasons,” says Fiore.
The 12 industries reporting growth in imports in June — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products. Three industries reported lower volumes of imports in June: Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Chemical Products.
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in June was 186 days, an increase of eight days compared to May and another all-time high. (ISM® began tracking lead times data in 1987.) CapEx lead times have increased in 10 of the last 12 months, for a net gain of 38 days since July 2021 (148 days). Average lead time in June for Production Materials increased by one day to return to its all-time high of 100 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased by four days, to 44 days.
Source: Institute for Supply Management