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The agency has increased its iron ore price assumption for 2022 to $120/mt from $110/mt, reflecting the strong average year-to-date price of $140/mt, which will moderate later on. Supply concerns amid the war between Ukraine and Russia, and seasonally lower Brazilian and Australian shipments have supported prices, despite lower steel production in China due to policy requirements and lower demand. There could be some price upside if steel consumption revives early in the second half of 2022. Low-cost iron ore supply should move the market into a surplus in two to three years, Fitch stated.

The price assumption for coking coal in 2022 has risen to $400/mt from $300/mt, and to $200/mt from $160/mt for 2023, reflecting record pricing year to date due to disrupted supplies from Australia and Russia. Russian seaborne supply will remain below pre-war levels. Fitch expects global long-term demand to fall on lower Chinese consumption, offsetting the growth in other regions.

Nickel price assumptions for this year also increased from $20,000/mt to $25,000/mt, reflecting strong year-to-date pricing. Low inventories, disruptions at Russia-based Norilsk Nickel and Brazil-based Vale have rebased short and medium-term prices.