Orbis Turkish Scrap Forecaster Orbis Turkish Scrap Forecaster

Orbis HRC CIS Export Forecaster Orbis HRC CIS Export Forecaster

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Chinese mills are being hit especially hard, with production suppressed by both political and business factors, and Turkish mills are continuing to find difficulty dealing with cheap products flowing out of Russia.

Though demand is better in the European Union, where demand for long products as well as prices are probably higher than anywhere else. However, safeguard measures prevent necessary imports of steel, and other areas in the world have a big cost advantage as steel products are much lower in price and are also benefitting downstream industries and investors.

In the US, demand for long products is relatively stable, and while the reinforcing bar market is holding its ground somewhat, it is expected to come down along with the flats market. With the expectation that US domestic prices will drop, imports have become less attractive, especially in light of domestic mills’ faster deliveries dominating the market.

Despite the overall demand forecast for long product, global scrap prices rebounding from low levels is sending a positive message to the market. Mills are also hoping that current low inventory levels will spur buying activity for Q4 arrivals, and a reduction of Russian steel in the market—since mills in the country have reduced export volumes due to their strong local currency—is also raising optimism.

Overall, IREPAS describes the current global longs market as “unstable,” but that could change if buyers return to the market to replenish stock at the end of August or the beginning of September.